Can South Africa Afford Its Defence Budget in 2024?

What happened

South Africa’s defence budget currently stands at less than 0.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), well below the global benchmark of 2%. Independent defence analyst Kobus Marais highlights that ideally, the national defence budget should be around 1.5% to 2% of GDP to maintain effective military capabilities. The country finds itself in a difficult position, balancing national security needs with tight fiscal space and competing development priorities.

Why it matters

Defence spending is not just about funding soldiers or weapons. It has a ripple effect on national security, economic stability, and job creation. A nation’s military strength can deter threats, maintain peace, and provide disaster relief during crises. In South Africa’s case, a lower budget means potential gaps in the country’s ability to respond to emerging security threats, including border protection, crime, and international peacekeeping obligations.

At the same time, defence budgets are often scrutinised to ensure money is well spent without wasting taxpayers’ resources. The question of affordability becomes even more critical with pressing needs in healthcare, education, and social services that compete for government funding.

What this means for South Africans

For everyday South Africans, the level of defence spending might seem distant. However, the repercussions reach far and wide. A well-funded defence force contributes to national stability, which in turn supports a healthy economy. On the flip side, poorly resourced defence can expose the country to risks such as increased crime or inability to protect critical infrastructure.

South Africa also participates in international peacekeeping missions with other African nations, which requires investment in personnel, training, and equipment. Without adequate funds, these commitments can strain the defence force, impacting its effectiveness at home and abroad.

Furthermore, defence spending can play a role in economic development through defence-related manufacturing and contracting opportunities, which may benefit local businesses.

Impact on consumers, jobs and small businesses

Defence procurement creates jobs not only within the military but also in manufacturing, technology, and services sectors. If defence budgets are kept low, opportunities for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that supply the military may reduce. This could slow down local business growth and limit job creation.

For consumers, a secure environment means better conditions for business operations and personal safety, which can influence investment and spending habits. Conversely, if the defence forces are underfunded and unable to address crime or secure borders, it might raise business risks and deter both domestic and foreign investment.

Small businesses involved in the defence supply chain stand to gain when there is a steady flow of contracts for equipment, infrastructure, or services. However, limited budgets can prompt delays or cancellations of such contracts, hurting these enterprises and the jobs they support.

Risks and limitations

While increasing defence spending to international norms sounds ideal, South Africa faces several challenges:

• Fiscal Constraints: The government operates under tight budget conditions, with deficits and debt levels that limit large increases in public expenditure.
• Competing Priorities: Education, health, social grants, and infrastructure needs are pressing and must be balanced against defence demands.
• Efficiency Concerns: Past issues with procurement delays, cost overruns, and corruption in the defence sector raise concerns about whether more funding will translate into better capabilities.
• Economic Impact: At a time when the economy is recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and enduring energy supply challenges, increasing defence budgets could divert resources from economic stimulus efforts.

Ultimately, South Africa needs to find a balanced approach where defence funding is sufficient to maintain core capabilities, support jobs and industry, but without undermining critical social services or economic growth. Transparency and accountability in defence spending remain essential to ensuring funds are used effectively.

Source

The insights in this article are drawn from commentary by independent defence analyst Kobus Marais, highlighting the need to reassess South Africa's defence budget in context of global standards and local needs.

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